Do you want to get money, predicting the football results? What do you need to know about football prediction models? Our article will help you!
Most people think that it is impossible to predict football results because it is all about the game. However, it is possible! All you need to do is to look at the sports betting business. Bookkeepers will never succeed in predicting the match results without the well-designed system. Nowadays, there are two approaches used in calculating the odds of football games. They are the ranking system and the rating system.
The ranking systems
This method implies that the rank of each team is often based on the results of previous games. Each team is provided with a rank. Therefore, the team who has accumulated the most points during a certain period will receive the highest rank in the hierarchy. There are eight systems which can be used to determine the rank of a team.
However, this method has several disadvantages in comparison to the rating system. For example, it is impossible to consider the individual abilities of players within the ranking system. Moreover, there is no opportunity to predict the quality of the team’s attack and defense. The ranking method can’t assess the result of the much. It is more useful for creating categories.
The rating system
As we know, the ranking method fails to provide team’s chances for success. On a contrary, the rating system is used to determine indicative scaling with the individuals skills of each player. It gives the possibility to calculate team’s defense and attack capabilities and the benefits of playing on the home field.
The first attempt to use this method was done in 1956, but the first mentions of these systems in a specialized publication were made in the early 90s.
Rating prediction approaches
There are three popular methods of rating at the moment. Each of them has some advantages and disadvantages downsides when it comes to predicting the results under certain conditions.
• The easiest method is the Time Independent Least Squares Rating. It implies that the rate is recalculated based on the result of each game.
• The Time-Independent Poisson Regression is another prediction model. It assumes that the odds for each team to score should be calculated using different probabilities.
• The Time Dependent Markov Chain Monte Carlo approach is slightly superior to the Time Independent Poison method. It takes into account the changes that occur in a team’s capabilities during the season.
One more interesting method
There is another interesting method to determine match result. It applies using animals’ help. The bright example is Octopus Paul, which the outcome of 4 out of 6 of Germany's matches in In UEFA Euro 2008. He was a common octopus who predicted the results of football matches.
He made many correct predictions in the 2010 World Cup. During divinations, Paul's keepers would present him with two boxes containing food. Each box was identical except for the fact that they were decorated with the different team flags of the competitors of an upcoming football match. Whichever box Paul ate from first would be considered his prediction for which team would win the match.
You need to remember that none of the ways mentioned above can predict the result with 100% accuracy. However, these models can give a general idea about the outcome. Furthermore, these models are constantly improving. Therefore, everyone who wants to bet should first become familiar with the basics of these prediction models.